According to security analysts and former officials, Israel has more latitude to respond forcefully to Iran’s missile barrage on Tuesday than it did in April when its retaliation involved a symbolic strike on an Iranian air defense installation.
In April, Israel was concerned that a strong response might provoke Iran to instruct its proxy militias, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, to retaliate extensively.
However, following a recent bombing campaign that killed Hezbollahās leader and other commanders, along with a ground invasion, Israel has weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities, reducing Iran’s deterrent power against a broader Israeli attack. Retired Israeli intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz stated, āIsrael has much more free rein in the Iranian context than in April, as thereās essentially no more threat that Hezbollah would join.ā
While the Biden administration may advise Israel to temper its response, U.S. officials are likely to have less sway than in April due to the upcoming American elections. Citrinowicz noted that this escalation is difficult to predict and will almost certainly provoke an Iranian counter-response, indicating the beginning of a more forceful confrontation between Israel and Iran.
In light of Iran’s missile attack, which involved around 180 missiles over half an hour, the focus for Israel has shifted from whether to attack Iran to how strongly to respond. Retired Major General Yaakov Amidror highlighted that the central question is “how much can we harm them versus their capacity to harm us,” and expressed belief that Israel’s recent actions have reduced the threat from Iranās proxies. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett emphasized the importance of seizing this moment to target Iran’s nuclear project and energy facilities, asserting that Israel faces āthe biggest opportunity in the past 50 yearsā to reshape the region.
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