Is Iran The Lion, The Giant And The Power To Beat In The Middle East And On The Other Hand Turkey Or Israel? ——-3
By Abbati Bako,psc,bsis,Kent Uni-alumni,UK And Researcher In International Politics
Before the current escalations of war between Israel and Tehran many analysts, researchers and experts in the Middle East do believe that Israel is the giant and nuclear power in the Middle East.
The author of the book titled “The Next 100 Years” George Friedman, 2009, USA” predicted that “By the middle of the century, Turkey’s influence will extend deep into Russia and the Balkans, where it will collide with Poland and the rest of the Eastern European coalition. It will also become a major Mediterranean power, controlling the Suez Canal and projecting its strength into the Persian Gulf. Turkey will frighten the Poles, the Indians, the Israelis, and above all the United States of America.”
Meaning, Turkey will dominate the political power, military strength and economic interplay in the Middle Eastern parts of the world and Eastern Europe. That’s to say Turkey may emerge as a regional power in the Middle East than Iran and Israel. Can this scholarly predictions be a reality in the years to come? Although, Professor George Friedman’s wish is for his grandsons in the future to say that the prediction of the grandpa is “50% very correct” George Friedman, 2009.
Another question one may need to know is what of the Israelis, the untouchable country in the Middle East? Because it seems as if they are the lone nuclear power in the region. Will Turkey’s influence in the Middle East supersede the power of Iran and Israel in the region despite the nuclear power race in the region?
This question is for the fact that Tehran have been struggling to build nuclear power plants since 1953 during the regime of the late Reza Pahlavi. The question now that bubbles in the mind of experts; is Tehran now has the nuclear power in the Middle East or not? This question is indeed imperative for the fact that American President Joe Biden has warned Israel not to retaliate against the attack made by Iran a week ago. Why was the warning for Israelis not to retaliate by the USA? And again, why Israel made a peripheral retaliatory attack against Tehran with only 3 drones and why not directly by nuclear power plants sites?
*Iran as a power in the Middle East why USA +5 negotiation on Iran nuclear dispute failed in Geneva years ago?
For over 60 years, the issue of Tehran’s Nuclear dispute with western world has failed to bring any meaningful and mutually negotiated agreement. But, the question one may ask; is the failure due to violation of rules and principles of negotiation and mediation? Why all the time deadlock/impasse? Egocentric tendency? Just political rhetoric from both sides?
This analysis, therefore, attempts to survey some of the key elements and identify a number of methods that the protagonists can use in a mediation and negotiation process.
The nuclear program of Iran was initiated in the early 1950s with support of US/European Nations. Essentially the aim was for the Iran Government to establish atomic energy for peaceful, not military purposes.
Prior to the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, USA and Western European Nations helped and encouraged Iran to establish nuclear power plants in Bushehr 1 and Bushehr 2 (water reactor) which were expected to be operational in 2009. The former leader of Iran, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi had approved plans to construct nuclear stations using German companies.
After the 1979 Islamic revolution, USA and EU changed gear for the fear that Iran may turn the plants to attain nuclear power for military purposes. The Islamic Republic of Iran approached many countries (not only Western Nations) with their ambitions to attain nuclear capacity.
Countries such as Mexico, Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa entered into contracts to support the nuclear programme of Tehran. At the same time Iran is subject to international legal frameworks. “Tehran signed the NuclearNon-Proliferation Treaty in 1968 and ratified it in 1970 making Iran nuclear power subject to the approval of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).” In recent years the conflict/dispute has accelerated. In the latter part of 2009 statements and counter statements have taken place through the United Nations (UN) mechanisms and the press.
In February 2009 IAEA Board of Governors reported that, “Contrary to the decisions of the Security Council, Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities” . According to the report, Iran refused to give details of its enrichment activities to the IAEA inspectors. Another question is, is Iran (now) a nuclear power in the Middle East or not?
However, the US/EU states tend to favor diplomatic routes over military threats. It should not be ignored that both the US and EU also have long term foreign policy and strategic energy interests in the Middle East of the world region. The Middle East Region is a darling and lovely area for resource benefits as per as Americans and Europeans are concerned.
On the other hand Russia has strong interests in Iran (even any Iranian President used to regularly pay visit to Russia) due to its political and trade links; there is close cooperation in the areas of nuclear power, energy and arms. In a recent article published in a Russian newspaper (cited in China org article ) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said: “It would hurt both Russia and Iran politically and economically if sanctions against Iran were to be imposed.” Despite the Ukrainian war with Russia still the Russians have a strong influence in Tehran that a negotiable approach can be tried again and again.
Therefore Russia could be a potential ally in pushing Iran in negotiations if it believes it will help ensure the ongoing successful implementation of the nuclear energy programme and Iran’s ability to trade internationally and all UN sanctions be lifted.
Peoplesmind